Scott Hammel watches an low precip supercell slowly move across the CO/KS border.

The day started out with a 4hr work shift and a lot of tea. As soon as I got off work for the day, I went to start my car to meet up with Scott Hammel and Kendall LaRoche in a secret location. I turned the key over and over again and no sign of the engine firing up so I frantically called Scott to see where he was at that point. Luckily he hadn’t hit the road and was able to come pick me up from my work. We headed over to pick up Kendall and reminded about the tornado outbreak of April 14th. After grabbing Kendall from the secret location we shot out east on I70 towards Limon, Colo. Sitting shotgun I pulled up some maps to see which target had the greatest potential for storm in the day time. We noticed SE CO/SW KS looked like a good target with 50Td surging north from the TX panhandle.

A single lightning bolt strikes an open field near Springfield, Colo.

Once we arrived at Springfield, CO we gassed up and re-positioned to the SW of Springfield, Colo. to watch developing storms off to our west. The first line of cells went up and produced some heavy rain and lots of cloud to ground lightning.

Low Precipitation supercell northwest of Springfield, Colo.

We continued to watch the developing cells and we were in perfect position to see the tail end storm develop nice structure and begin to rotate. This would be the cell we would follow into KS and eventually watch it die out around sunset.

Scott Hammel watches a plum of dust get kicked up by rear flank downdraft winds from a supercell near Springfield, Colo.

All in all it was a great relaxing chase, not every chase will produce long track tornadoes or massive hail but these chases produce some of the best structured storms I have seen. Thanks goes to Scott for doing all the driving and Kendall (nominee for the title of storm reeper) for his insane amount of energy seeing as I had been up since 4am and wasn’t so awake.

MC.

April 14, 2012 will go down in history as one of my top three best storm chases of all time. The day started out in Russell, KS. Myself and Eric Haave a meteorologist based out of Denver, Colo. headed north with my dad, Verne Carlson, Eric Carlson and Beth McCarley. Our initial plan and target was to head north to warm front, triple point area near Smith Center, KS at 8am. The first PDS (potentially dangerous situation) tornado watch was issued shortly after arrival to Smith Center, KS. We sat and watched supercells develop near the Dodge City, KS. area and move north towards our position. As storms begun to reach the warm front they became tornado warned and developed nice radar signatures. Eric and I remained in Smith Center, KS while my dad moved east of town to get a better look at the first supercells to move into the area. We moved east towards the first tornado warned supercell to near the WF. We positioned north of the storm and then moved south on a gravel road, this became a poor decision on my part because the gravel road we were on turned to ‘Kansas cake batter” or mud. We then slowly made our way, slipping and sliding to the pavement, by this time the tornado warned cell we were on became outflow dominant. Once we were on paved roads the car begun to shake, we stopped to see what the issue was. I then saw the three inch deep mud that was stuck to my wheels and wheel wells. I took around an hour to rip the mud with my bare hands from the inner rims to get the car rolling smooth again.
After the muddy road we continued to drop south on newly developed supercells. We intercepted a tornado warned cell just east of Jewell, KS but due to the low fog and the rain we were unable to see the base so we continued on south. Since it was noon we decided that we would make a play at the storms in south central Kansas since they had been isolated and producing tornadoes since they had formed. We made a quick stop to top off the tank on exit 225 on I70, then shot south to the nearest supercell moving towards Lyons, KS.
Once we arrived at our new target storm we watched as it battled with another cell that was merging into it. It tried forming a wall cloud but fell apart as it was pulling rain cooled air into the updraft from the cell behind it. We decided to re-position to the northeast of Lyons, KS. to see if the storm could reorganize since the cell merger. Around this time a new PDS tornado watch was issued.

After darting east out of Lyons, KS. we headed north on Hunter blvd. just east of Lyons and we saw scud beginning to develop under the updraft base. We pushed north on Hunter and caught glimpses of what we though was a developing tornado and as we cleared a tree grove we saw the wedge emerge from the rain.
We stopped at a dirt road and watched as the wedge tornado morphed into a multi-vortex tornado and then proceeded into the large cone as it moved towards the northeast.

After gaining 7-8mins of footage from our dirt turn off, we blasted north and east on several dirt roads trying to make up ground on the large tornado but due to the amount of chasers on the storm the good roads were packed in and we lost the tornado as it dissipated off in the distance.

After the tornado dissipated we shot north on interstate 35 towards Salina, KS. We pulled off on an exit just south of town and drove east and then north anticipation a new tornadic circulation would develop. Our persistence payed off as we saw a brief tornado form off to our northwest. Once we made it to our north road to get back to the mesocyclone a new tornado was developing. We were still to far to get close footage of the tornadoes but we enjoyed the large cone tornado from a distance. Shortly after we pushed north and caught the rope out stage of this tornado.

All in all it was a tough forecast but with persistence and determination we managed to document three separate tornadoes and two of them being long tracked. There were many first’s for me on this day, documenting a large violent tornado from close range(close range can be argued), being in a position to document high contrast tornadoes from the RFD portion of the storm, and documenting a tornado on a high risk day. A big thanks to Eric Haave for navigating, shooting video, and being a great chase partner, He shot all the video while we re-positioned on the tornadoes.

MC.

Michael Carlson

The goal of this report is to provide an in-depth look at the HRRR, also known as the High Resolution Rapid Refresh RUC model compared to the actual radar data from the tornado outbreak that occurred in Southeastern Colorado and discuss the accuracy of the HRRR compared to real time data. This report will only highlight the Colorado domain because visual documentation of the tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle as well as Western Kansas was not collected.

April 22, 2010 will go down in the books as the most successful visual documentation tornado intercept by  Michael Carlson. A week prior to the event, the long range forecast was showing a potent upper level system moving into the plains area around April 20-23, 2011 period. As later model runs were generated the target became clear that Eastern Colorado would be a focus for strong supercell storms. All the ingredients were in place for strong tornadoes but the major question was if morning convection would clear out early enough so the atmosphere could heat up and destabilize.

Visible satellite showed nice clearing and heating going on in Southeast Colorado by 1715Z (11:15am MTN) this would be the primary area for thunderstorm initiation. (Fig 1.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed at this same time (17Z) that there was no convection occurring or forming in this area. (Fig 2.) Taking a look at real time composite reflectivity data from this same time would confirm this finding. (Fig 3.)

Fig 1. - Visible Sat Image

Fig 2. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 3. Real Time Composite Ref

Moving ahead in time to the intonation period of the thunderstorm development, we can see on the Vis Sat that a nice cell was forming around 1815Z (12:15am MTN) just south of Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 4.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed at this same time no reflectivity (18Z)(Fig 5.) but the real time composite reflectivity data showed a small radar echo forming (17:54)(Fig 6.)

Fig 4. Vis Sat

Fig 5. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 6. Composite Ref

At the time 1915Z of visual conformation of the first tornado the Vis Sat showed a nicely developed supercell south of Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 7.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed the same cell showing up near Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 8.) This same supercell was seen in real time on composite reflectivity (Fig 9.) as well as high resolution radar scans by the Pueblo, Colo. Radar.  (Fig 10.1. – 10.2.)

Fig 7. Vis Sat

Fig 8. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 9. Composite Ref

Fig 10.1. High Res Velocity Radar from PUB.

Fig 10.2. Base Ref

Stepping back and looking at the other HRRR Composite Reflectivity model output runs it is noted that each run showed the exact same supercell forming in the region of the actual supercell event. There are some inconsistencies with each run on timing of supercell initiation and region of initiation. Though these inconsistencies were minor to the actual events that took place.

HRRR 13Z Run

HRRR 14Z Run

HRRR 15Z Run

HRRR 16Z Run

HRRR 17Z Run

HRRR 18Z Run

HRRR 19Z Run

It is clear that the HRRR is a powerful tool when it comes to forecasting. Not only did the HRRR predict the individual supercell that went on to produce a photogenic tornado but it dealt with the cloud cover that was the deciding factor in this particular setup. The HRRR should not be used as a single source forecasting tool but should be used in unison with other forecasting tools such as the RUC, WRF/NAM and GFS. Even though the HRRR was very accurate with this setup it is uncertain that the HRRR will be consistent with future setups, there are still many variables that need to be fixed before this is the “dream” model.

Michael Carlson

Supercell moving through North Dakota. Michael Carlson Photography Strobist none Nikon D200 18-70mm F3.5

Scott Hammel watches a supercell moving through North Dakota. Michael Carlson Photography Strobist none Nikon D200 18-70mm F3.5

Wall cloud in South Dakota. Michael Carlson Photography Strobist none Nikon D200 18-70mm F3.5

Lightning in South Dakota. Michael Carlson Photography Strobist none Nikon D200 18-70mm F3.5

Michael Carlson

Captured some close range lightning as well as some distance lightning over Denver, Colo. and Thornton, Colo.

Michael Carlson

Lightning over Denver Colo.

Lightning over Denver Colo.

Lightning over Denver Colo.

Lightning over Denver Colo.

Michael Carlson

LIMON COLO 7/11/11 - Lightning strikes the ground west of Limon Colo.

With Temperature reaching into the mid-80s each day and monsoon moisture streaming in from Mexico, this combination creates the environment for thunderstorms. For the last week now the Denver metro area and surrounding areas down to Colorado Springs have seen sub-severe storms each afternoon into late evening. With these thunderstorms comes the hazards of flash flooding, small hail and lots of lightning. I ventured out this afternoon with good buddy and soon to be Meteorologist, Kendall LaRoche in search of some daytime lightning. We headed down to the Plamer Divide area and intercepted a few thunderstorm before moving east towards Limon, Colo. where we witnessed OBF (Outflow Boundary) colliding into each other. This sparked off a few new cells to our east and we photographed an awesome lightning display.

LIMON COLO 7/11/11 - Lightning strikes the ground west of Limon Colo.

MATHESON COLO 7/11/11 - Lightning strikes the ground as monsoon thunderstorms roll over the plains of Colorado bringing high winds, hail and dangerous lightning.

KIOWA COLO 7/11/11 - Lightning strikes the ground east of Kiowa Colo.

Michael Carlson

To see the Metadata click on the final end point. If the Map does not appear click on Bike Ride in a larger map.

This map shows my bike ride that I went on the other day and what is cool is all this data was collected using my HTC Evo. I am testing out this app called My Tracks. It is an android app that will run on any phone that runs the android system. I figured why not test it out. All I had to do is hit record and go. The thing that was great about this app was that is recorded and stored a lot of meta data about my ride like distance, average speed, max grade and even elevation gain. Another thing I really like about this app is that I was able to record the GPS data directly to google maps, this feature makes it really easy to convert to a web map that you can then publish. I am going to try and use this app while storm chasing, snowboarding, bike riding, even walking. – More to come about this app!!

Michael Carlson