Morning of May 8, 2013 showed a decent system ejecting into the plains with a triple point located near southeast Colorado down into the Oklahoma panhandle, this would provide a focus for severe storms and isolated tornadoes. My target for the day was Lamar down to Springfield, Colo. it was pretty easy seeing as I had to be back at work the next day and I couldn’t make it to central Kansas for the main show. I normally will play a secondary target to the “main” severe weather focus, so the triple point looked like a good start.

Forecast:

Diving into the model runs the morning of the 8th there was promise that cells would fire early(noonish) around Lamar to Boise City, Okla. and mature to the north north east. into better instability and moisture.

One parameter I like to look at is the 1KM Updraft Helicity (aka cells that might have stronger rotating updrafts) It was really nice to see that cells would form and start to rotate right away before they turned into multicells.

Around 1PM MST (19Z) cells started to form on the Raton Mesa in New Mexico and these would eventually turn into our target storms.

Chase Report:

Arriving in Lamar, Colo. I topped my gas tank off and grabbed a bite to eat at the Sonic. My good friend Scott Hammel and Christa were on their way down from Denver looking to target the same area. Previous to arriving in Lamar, Scott and I were having a nice forecast chat with Dann Cianca over Voxer about the setup and where to move once we got to Lamar.

(BEEP BEEP) Dann came over Voxer saying saying cells were exploding off the Raton Mesa in NM, Scott and I had a quick chat after noticing a newly developed cell to our north had gone severe warned and we decided to wait and see if the cells down in NM would strengthen. 15 minutes later the first cells begun to show signs of intensification.

Scott and I scrambled south towards the cells to get an eye on them. We arrived in Campo, Colo. and had a nice view of the bases of the two cells.

We didn’t feel the need to position south of the cells since they weren’t showing any signs of producing tornadoes.(No wall clouds, No Scud, nothing) So Scott busted out the Quad-Copter to get some aerial shots of the storms.

At around 1:23PM MST (1923Z) time the first Landspout formed just to our southwest. The tornado lasted around 5 to 10 minutes in an open field.

After the landspout dissipated we decided to move south towards the intensifying supercell. At this point the cell begun to show a signs of a developing mesocyclone and clear slot. The second tornado formed around 1:49PM (1949Z) This weak tornado was almost a hybrid of a supercell type tornado and a landspout, since there was a clear slot rapping around the tornado as well as the funnel forming first then the debris cloud I am calling this one more of a supercell tornado.

Moving south we eventually got in front of the supercell as it put down multiple circulation and had a ragged base.

The supercell now just east of Boise City, Okla. showed signs of trying to rap up and produce another tornado but could never get its act together. The supercell eventually gusted out and moved into the line of storms that was making its way into Kansas. We decided to call the chase at this point and make our way home. We met up with Eric Treece who also got on the same cell.

What a great day! I could not be happier with our target and forecasting with this marginal severe weather event. Its been awhile since I have had back to back tornado documentations but 2013 has started slow but strong. Still striving for a bigger event but I am very happy with everything. I had the best time chasing with my good friends Scott, Christa and Eric.

Till next time..

MC

Myself and my girl friend Ashleigh Smith Left Castle Rock, Colo. around 10:30am MST for our initial target of Kit Carson, Colo. (See maps below)

We watched as the first few initial cells went up and moved on to the north before the “tail end charlie” cell became the dominate storm and began to make more of a right move into the better moisture/CAPE.

We continued to follow this cell as it progressed northeast maturing from thunderstorm to rapid intensification of a supercell.

As we moved northeast with the cell it begun to show signs of losing strength and begun to split/dissipate. As this occurred the lift split which never turley split it mearley elongated the precip core to the northeast, the base begun to spin slightly. From the visual looks of things I had already given up on the storm and begun to push north to see what kind of small hail/rain I could get into. We stopped just west of Bonny Res. on HWY 385. At this point we encountered small hail up to nickle size and some have rains. We could still see most of the base of the supercell and there would be occasional dirt plumes from gusty winds that looked to be just on the edge of the updraft base or directly under it. At some point one of the dirt plums looked cylindrical and as soon as I saw this I looked to the cloud base and sure enough there was a small funnel directly over the debris cloud.

It was a tornado! I was so surprised that we actually caught a glimpse of the landspout type tornado that I didn’t have my camera ready. I rushed to the back of my car where I had my tele lens on my second camera body and begun to shoot. I only managed to get a shot of the tornado dissipating in the distance. I wasn’t to bummed seeing as I was out to test my new gear and just get my feet wet.

After the tornado lifted Ashleigh and I started back towards Denver. We did make a quick detour to go after one of several tornado warned cells near Fort Morgan, Colo. but when we arrived to the cell we had to come in from the west, not the best angle to see a night time tornado but we tired and couldn’t see much. It was apparent the cold front had destroyed any chance for a tornado before we got there because the temp dropped 20 degrees in a matter of 10 minutes before we intercepted the storm.

Michael C.

Back in December I was honored to be a part of my best friend Cody and his wife Ashley’s wedding. Myself and my sister got to photograph the event and I have to say it was a different experience unlike any I have had in the past.

I never knew the work and stress one would undergo trying to be in 10 places at once at a wedding but it was fun. I won’t go into detail about how everything was shot but just let the photos speak for them self.

Enjoy!

Michael Carlson

Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Here are some images I made the other day of my friends Drew Summers and Etae Stout hitting some features at the Valmont Bike Park in Boulder Colo. I injured myself a week ago so this gave me the opportunity to photograph some action sports. I did get some images of other riders who were hitting the large “whale tail” – really impressive to say the least. Enjoy!

Etae Stout – Valmont Bike Park
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Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Etae Stout doing s manual off a wood plank at the Valmont Bike Park
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Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Etae Stout – Valmont Bike Park
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Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Etae Stout doing a drop off at the Valmont Bike Park
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Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Drew Summers going off a drop off at the Valmont Bike Park.

Drew Summers – Valmont Bike Park.
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Valmont Bike Park
www.michaelcarlsonphoto.com;

Micheal Carlson

Dann Cianca and Scott Hammel do some forecasting before storms form over southeast WY.

Becca Mazur, Dann Cianca and Kendall LaRoche watch the skies as convection builds to the east.

Dann Cianca and Scott Hammel watching the rain fall in southeast WY.

We watch a few thunderstorms develop and die since the atmosphere was still capped in the upper levels. A new band of towering cumulus started to build off to our east and we decided to move towards it. At this time there was a developing supercell near Wheatland, WY. and we decided to go up after it.

Kendall LaRoche and Scott Hammel document a developing supercell south east of Chugwater, WY.

Pushing north we saw a huge supercell blow up to our east and made the call to target this new cell since it was all by itself and was in some better air. We moved into position to see the updraft base of the developing supercell and the Wheatland storm had begun to spin and eventually got tornado warned.

We continued to target the southern storm and started hearing reports of tornadoes on the Wheatland storm. We soon realized that our target storm had not broken the cap and begun to die. We quickly shot north through La Grange to get back to the Wheatland storm.

We eventually made it onto the mesa just east of Chugwater, WY. and saw the second tornado as it begun to dissipate. With the poor road networks we couldn’t get to the storm quick enough to get the whole life cycle but at least we still got a glimpse of the tornado.

Racing west to catch a mature tornado northeast of Chugwater, WY. Poor road networks lead to missing the full life cycle of the tornado.

– Mature tornado just northwest of Chugwater, WY. Poor road networks lead to missing the full evolution of this tornado. “]

Cropped Image - Mature tornado just northwest of Chugwater, WY. Poor road networks lead to missing the full evolution of this tornado.

Tornado ropping out northeast of Chugwater, WY.

Tornadic Supercell just east of Chugwater, WY.

After watching the tornado rope out we followed the storm back south as new storms begun to develop just south of our new target storm. We moved on the tail end storm since our original storm had merged with the tail end. After the storm merger the southern storm begun to have some slow rotation and got tornado warned.

Tornado warned supercell over the Wyoming country side.

We sat and watched the cell approach us on HWY 85 and it never got a focused area of rotation to form a tornado so we dropped south to I80 and gas up. Seeing as the tornado threat was diminishing and storms were merging together we decided to celebrate with a steak dinner in Cheyenne, WY.

After dinner we headed towards home and a new cell had formed just south of Cheyenne and begun to rapidly rotate. We position our self south of Greeley, Colo. and shot some lightning. All in All a great chase with my best friends!

Lightning over Greeley, Colo.

- I have to say Dann Cianca is a tornado god, he lives in Grand Junction all year and the moment he comes to the other side of the mountains tornadoes drop in CO/WY. I have seen more tornadoes with this guy than any other friends, I have to say he is a good luck charm and I am honored to chase next to him – thanks for coming down and we will miss you till you come back again!

MC

A dying supercell in central Kansas. Decided to leave the watermark off this one.

Gustnadoes spin up on the front edge of an outflow dominate thunderstorm in SE Nebraska.

Eric Treece setting up his video camera to do some time lapse of storms

A supercell in central Kansas.

MC

Scott Hammel watches an low precip supercell slowly move across the CO/KS border.

The day started out with a 4hr work shift and a lot of tea. As soon as I got off work for the day, I went to start my car to meet up with Scott Hammel and Kendall LaRoche in a secret location. I turned the key over and over again and no sign of the engine firing up so I frantically called Scott to see where he was at that point. Luckily he hadn’t hit the road and was able to come pick me up from my work. We headed over to pick up Kendall and reminded about the tornado outbreak of April 14th. After grabbing Kendall from the secret location we shot out east on I70 towards Limon, Colo. Sitting shotgun I pulled up some maps to see which target had the greatest potential for storm in the day time. We noticed SE CO/SW KS looked like a good target with 50Td surging north from the TX panhandle.

A single lightning bolt strikes an open field near Springfield, Colo.

Once we arrived at Springfield, CO we gassed up and re-positioned to the SW of Springfield, Colo. to watch developing storms off to our west. The first line of cells went up and produced some heavy rain and lots of cloud to ground lightning.

Low Precipitation supercell northwest of Springfield, Colo.

We continued to watch the developing cells and we were in perfect position to see the tail end storm develop nice structure and begin to rotate. This would be the cell we would follow into KS and eventually watch it die out around sunset.

Scott Hammel watches a plum of dust get kicked up by rear flank downdraft winds from a supercell near Springfield, Colo.

All in all it was a great relaxing chase, not every chase will produce long track tornadoes or massive hail but these chases produce some of the best structured storms I have seen. Thanks goes to Scott for doing all the driving and Kendall (nominee for the title of storm reeper) for his insane amount of energy seeing as I had been up since 4am and wasn’t so awake.

MC.

April 14, 2012 will go down in history as one of my top three best storm chases of all time. The day started out in Russell, KS. Myself and Eric Haave a meteorologist based out of Denver, Colo. headed north with my dad, Verne Carlson, Eric Carlson and Beth McCarley. Our initial plan and target was to head north to warm front, triple point area near Smith Center, KS at 8am. The first PDS (potentially dangerous situation) tornado watch was issued shortly after arrival to Smith Center, KS. We sat and watched supercells develop near the Dodge City, KS. area and move north towards our position. As storms begun to reach the warm front they became tornado warned and developed nice radar signatures. Eric and I remained in Smith Center, KS while my dad moved east of town to get a better look at the first supercells to move into the area. We moved east towards the first tornado warned supercell to near the WF. We positioned north of the storm and then moved south on a gravel road, this became a poor decision on my part because the gravel road we were on turned to ‘Kansas cake batter” or mud. We then slowly made our way, slipping and sliding to the pavement, by this time the tornado warned cell we were on became outflow dominant. Once we were on paved roads the car begun to shake, we stopped to see what the issue was. I then saw the three inch deep mud that was stuck to my wheels and wheel wells. I took around an hour to rip the mud with my bare hands from the inner rims to get the car rolling smooth again.
After the muddy road we continued to drop south on newly developed supercells. We intercepted a tornado warned cell just east of Jewell, KS but due to the low fog and the rain we were unable to see the base so we continued on south. Since it was noon we decided that we would make a play at the storms in south central Kansas since they had been isolated and producing tornadoes since they had formed. We made a quick stop to top off the tank on exit 225 on I70, then shot south to the nearest supercell moving towards Lyons, KS.
Once we arrived at our new target storm we watched as it battled with another cell that was merging into it. It tried forming a wall cloud but fell apart as it was pulling rain cooled air into the updraft from the cell behind it. We decided to re-position to the northeast of Lyons, KS. to see if the storm could reorganize since the cell merger. Around this time a new PDS tornado watch was issued.

After darting east out of Lyons, KS. we headed north on Hunter blvd. just east of Lyons and we saw scud beginning to develop under the updraft base. We pushed north on Hunter and caught glimpses of what we though was a developing tornado and as we cleared a tree grove we saw the wedge emerge from the rain.
We stopped at a dirt road and watched as the wedge tornado morphed into a multi-vortex tornado and then proceeded into the large cone as it moved towards the northeast.

After gaining 7-8mins of footage from our dirt turn off, we blasted north and east on several dirt roads trying to make up ground on the large tornado but due to the amount of chasers on the storm the good roads were packed in and we lost the tornado as it dissipated off in the distance.

After the tornado dissipated we shot north on interstate 35 towards Salina, KS. We pulled off on an exit just south of town and drove east and then north anticipation a new tornadic circulation would develop. Our persistence payed off as we saw a brief tornado form off to our northwest. Once we made it to our north road to get back to the mesocyclone a new tornado was developing. We were still to far to get close footage of the tornadoes but we enjoyed the large cone tornado from a distance. Shortly after we pushed north and caught the rope out stage of this tornado.

All in all it was a tough forecast but with persistence and determination we managed to document three separate tornadoes and two of them being long tracked. There were many first’s for me on this day, documenting a large violent tornado from close range(close range can be argued), being in a position to document high contrast tornadoes from the RFD portion of the storm, and documenting a tornado on a high risk day. A big thanks to Eric Haave for navigating, shooting video, and being a great chase partner, He shot all the video while we re-positioned on the tornadoes.

MC.

Michael Carlson

The goal of this report is to provide an in-depth look at the HRRR, also known as the High Resolution Rapid Refresh RUC model compared to the actual radar data from the tornado outbreak that occurred in Southeastern Colorado and discuss the accuracy of the HRRR compared to real time data. This report will only highlight the Colorado domain because visual documentation of the tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle as well as Western Kansas was not collected.

April 22, 2010 will go down in the books as the most successful visual documentation tornado intercept by  Michael Carlson. A week prior to the event, the long range forecast was showing a potent upper level system moving into the plains area around April 20-23, 2011 period. As later model runs were generated the target became clear that Eastern Colorado would be a focus for strong supercell storms. All the ingredients were in place for strong tornadoes but the major question was if morning convection would clear out early enough so the atmosphere could heat up and destabilize.

Visible satellite showed nice clearing and heating going on in Southeast Colorado by 1715Z (11:15am MTN) this would be the primary area for thunderstorm initiation. (Fig 1.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed at this same time (17Z) that there was no convection occurring or forming in this area. (Fig 2.) Taking a look at real time composite reflectivity data from this same time would confirm this finding. (Fig 3.)

Fig 1. - Visible Sat Image

Fig 2. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 3. Real Time Composite Ref

Moving ahead in time to the intonation period of the thunderstorm development, we can see on the Vis Sat that a nice cell was forming around 1815Z (12:15am MTN) just south of Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 4.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed at this same time no reflectivity (18Z)(Fig 5.) but the real time composite reflectivity data showed a small radar echo forming (17:54)(Fig 6.)

Fig 4. Vis Sat

Fig 5. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 6. Composite Ref

At the time 1915Z of visual conformation of the first tornado the Vis Sat showed a nicely developed supercell south of Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 7.) The HRRR 12Z Composite Reflectivity model output run showed the same cell showing up near Las Animas, Colo. (Fig 8.) This same supercell was seen in real time on composite reflectivity (Fig 9.) as well as high resolution radar scans by the Pueblo, Colo. Radar.  (Fig 10.1. – 10.2.)

Fig 7. Vis Sat

Fig 8. HRRR Composite Ref

Fig 9. Composite Ref

Fig 10.1. High Res Velocity Radar from PUB.

Fig 10.2. Base Ref

Stepping back and looking at the other HRRR Composite Reflectivity model output runs it is noted that each run showed the exact same supercell forming in the region of the actual supercell event. There are some inconsistencies with each run on timing of supercell initiation and region of initiation. Though these inconsistencies were minor to the actual events that took place.

HRRR 13Z Run

HRRR 14Z Run

HRRR 15Z Run

HRRR 16Z Run

HRRR 17Z Run

HRRR 18Z Run

HRRR 19Z Run

It is clear that the HRRR is a powerful tool when it comes to forecasting. Not only did the HRRR predict the individual supercell that went on to produce a photogenic tornado but it dealt with the cloud cover that was the deciding factor in this particular setup. The HRRR should not be used as a single source forecasting tool but should be used in unison with other forecasting tools such as the RUC, WRF/NAM and GFS. Even though the HRRR was very accurate with this setup it is uncertain that the HRRR will be consistent with future setups, there are still many variables that need to be fixed before this is the “dream” model.

Michael Carlson